Freight Industry Outlook 2026

Welcome to 2026! the Freight industry in 2026 will take soem of the distruptions of 2025 with it into 2026. The dynamics of the Trade War will likely continue into 2026, impacting markets all over the world. Saying that other pressures that the feight industry has been under may begin to ease, one example being more traffic through the Red Sea. The Trade war ensure that most shippers front loaded their freight requirements in anticipation of the US administrations tariffs. This ensured that although traffic decreased container volumes nevertheless grew this was principally driven by China's drive to diversify its export markets. Added to this a more stable US tariff regime will allow freight to return to seasonality in 2026, along with impending judicial challenges in the US Supreme Court and IEEPA may create short term uncertainty within the Freight industry. This will be more than offset by growth in exports in other jurisdictions.

Fleet growth has created oversupply, despite continued Red Sea diversions and a continued supply of new vessels coming online, rates will likely see a continued downward trend heading into 2026. Red Sea diversion will likley slow down over the course of 2026, the impact of this will cause significant trafic disruption causing delays in European Hubs as well as upward pressure on rates. Once the congestion unwinds the realeased capacity will exacabate oversupply issues in the global economy. One area of freight that has seen continued growth in 2025 which is set to continue into 2026 is Air Freight.

Air cargo proved highly resilient despite the Trade War both globally as well as in the United States. Even with the the US De minimis closure for China intially caused distruption and a sharp decrease in trans-pacific (transpac) shipments, but by July demand had recovered to 2024 levels through e-commerce adjustments, increased general cargo from places like Vietnam where electronics exports have surged. Volumes on Asia-Europe, Intra-Asia, and other cargo lanes grew. This was even while transpac shipments had stalled, partly from chinese exports shifting to other markets. IATA projects, 2.6% global volume growth in 2026 as these trends are likely to continue. Air cargo rates reamined remarkably stable throughout 2025, this will likely continue throughout 2026 despite these volume shifts, following seasonal patterns and staying largely on par with 2024 levels, as carriers rapidly redeployed capacityfrom transpacific to growing lanes in Asia-Europe. Agile capacity shifts are likely to temper rate fluctuations for 2026 as well.

Ocean Tariffs, Capacity & Red Sea

The US intiated trade war that got underway in Febuary 2025, with its shifting tariff threats, deadlines postponements and introductions skewed the typical seasonality of the transpacific ocean freight year. This resulted in the first half of 2025 Importers frontloading or pausing container bookings, in order to try and beat or avoid the higher coasts from potential tariff changes. This start and stop meant that stronger US import volumes in the first half of 2025 and weaker imports in the second half, with uncertainty around consumer demand resulting in a drop 1.4% in consumer imports, this is according to the US National Retail Federation.

Globally though, the trade war has proven not to have had a drag on container growth. The year to date global volumes up 4% year to Octboer 25'. The Trade War indirectely spurred growth by driving a diversication of destination markets for goods coming out of the Far East, this is especially true for China as the manufacturing power sought and found export growth through markets other than the US. By Q4 the US tariffs landscape solidified via US trade aggreements with many of its major trading partners, and a China-US deesclation agreement through November 2026. All else being equal then, these developments make the return of freight seasonality more likely in 2026 (including recent development over US threats to Greenland).

Uncertainty Ahead

However the US Supreme Court is set to decide by July 26 on the validity of the Trump Administration use of the International Emergency Economic Powers act for all of its country specific tariffs. If the US Supreme Court opens enough of a lower tarrif window the freight industry could once again see a lot of front loading. Finally, if tariffs are removed and importers are convinced they aren’t coming back any time soon, we could see some initial increase in volumes – and stronger volumes overall – but not sudden starts and stops. Globally we should expect 2026 to look similar to 2025, in its overall growth, but also in its diversification and volume growth or contraction by lanes. The S&P 500 predicts that 2026 Ocean Imports into the United States, will contract by 2% as tariff costs could start to impact on Importer decisions and the economy.

Hedging the Future

For Importers and Exporters alike hedging, is the safest strategy, ensuring that you exploit as many markets as you can to ensure that the risks to Geopolitical shocks are reduced. In order to achieve this it is imperative that working with expert freight Forwards like our team here at Brunswick International Freight is so import for your businesses success. At Brunswick International our team will deal with the entire life cycle of your Freights movement, ensuring a safe and convient experince for you and your company. So as we enter into an unpredicatbale 2026 remember the best stratergy is to Hedge the Markets you operate in order to ahieve the right stratergy get in touch today with our team so that we can ensure that your business continues to go from strength to strength.